Enrique Badía/ Estrella Digital
Los cálculos varían en función de quien los esgrime, pero en todo caso han pasado bastantes años desde que Barcelona comenzó a reclamar la ampliación del aeropuerto de El Prat. Mañana entrará al fin en servicio la nueva T-1, que prácticamente permitirá duplicar su teórica capacidad. Cuestión distinta será que se materialice el resto de cosas que de siempre se han esgrimido como elemento de agravio, sobre todo desde que en Madrid-Barajas se añadió la un tanto grandilocuente T-4, con todo lo que ha dado de sí en términos de comparación.
Como casi todas las obras públicas, esta de El Prat ha discurrido salpicada de polémicas que es poco probable desaparezcan con el acto de inauguración. Han sido de diversos tipos, con desigual grado de eco y agitación, no siempre del todo correspondiente con la trascendencia en términos de uso y funcionalidad. Habría que destacar quizás la enésima omisión del concepto intermodal que suele caracterizar la ejecutoria de las administraciones y entes públicos; en este caso concreto, AENA, titular exclusivo de la red de aeropuertos públicos españoles.
Tampoco las estimaciones de plazos coinciden, pero la más ajustada señala que se ha tardado alrededor de nueve años en llevar a cabo las obras. Tiempo que, sin embargo, no ha sido suficiente para que el remodelado aeropuerto disponga de una red de accesos acorde con los alrededor de 60 millones de pasajeros anuales que aspira mover: una de las carreteras más congestionadas del área metropolitana de Barcelona es el único modo de llegar a la nueva terminal. Sobre el papel se ha hablado de extender hasta allí la red de metro, así como prolongar la línea de cercanías que llega hasta los alrededores del primitivo edificio terminal, pero no es creíble que nada de eso tarde menos de tres o cuatro años, si no más.
La reivindicación de fondo de una parte relevante de la sociedad catalana, con los líderes políticos, empresariales y mediáticos al frente, es que El Prat se potencie para convertirlo en lo que se denomina hub; esto es, cabecera y enlace de vuelos intercontinentales. Con ese propósito se ha reclamado largo tiempo dotarlo de mucha mayor capacidad. Cuestión distinta es que determinadas decisiones políticas discurran en esa misma dirección.
Una de las incógnitas a tener presente es cómo se van a compadecer las aspiraciones de propiciar una mayor potenciación de El Prat con la política aeroportuaria del Gobierno catalán. Hace pocos meses aprobó un plan de dotación aeroportuaria que pretende primar el tráfico en Girona-Costa Brava y Reus-Costa Dorada, distantes apenas 100 kilómetros del centro de Barcelona, respectivamente en direcciones norte y sur, así como añadir hasta media docena de nuevos recintos, comenzando por la restitución operativa de los de Sabadell y La Seu d'Urgell, y la puesta en servicio el próximo otoño del construido en los alrededores de Lleida.
No hace falta ser un experto para presumir que el resto de aeropuertos de Cataluña acabará detrayendo tráfico a El Prat, por lo que potenciarlos en paralelo habrá de desembocar en la sobredimensión de alguno. Puro sentido común. De momento, la inauguración no ha tenido demasiada suerte: tras años de crecimiento apreciable del tráfico de pasajeros y mercancías, resulta que la nueva fase entra en servicio tras doce meses de caídas superiores al 10 por ciento. Y si esto es producto de la coyuntura, lo otro parece responder al hábito de considerar cada infraestructura de forma aislada, sin una visión de conjunto que haga todo más eficiente y eficaz.
Cerrando el círculo, cabe prever que la nueva terminal será bonita, aunque no esté tan asegurado, vistos los precedentes, que usarla rebose comodidad.
martes, 16 de junio de 2009
lunes, 8 de junio de 2009
Corporate governance rules divide Japan
By Michiyo Nakamoto in Tokyo
Published: May 28 2009 17:24 Last updated: May 28 2009 17:24
It used to be said that Japan’s business community, bureaucracy and politicians formed an iron triangle that was a key factor in the country’s post-war industrial success.
But a stand-off between the Keidanren, Japan’s powerful business lobby, and regulators over whether listed companies should be required to appoint outside directors has exposed cracks in the foundations of the Japanese economic edifice.
EDITOR’S CHOICE
Tokyo plans guidelines for independent directors - May-26
The Keidanren – headed by the indomitable Fujio Mitarai, chairman of Canon – is resisting an initiative by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry to require listed companies to appoint outside directors as a means to improve corporate governance.
Japanese regulators, once criticised for their cosy relationships with companies, have joined investors in raising concerns about the impact of poor corporate governance on the future of the Japanese economy.
The issue of outside, independent directors has been the subject of much debate in recent years, particularly after it was raised by foreign fund managers unhappy with corporate governance standards in Japan.
Under Japanese company law, companies are free to choose between two systems of corporate governance: a system with committees, which requires the appointment of outside directors; and a statutory auditor system, which does not call for outside directors.
In practice, although just 56 of the 2,634 companies listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange have opted for the committee system, only 1,057 companies have outside directors. Corporate governance advocates, such as the Asian Corporate Governance Association, as well as foreign business lobby groups, including the American Chamber of Commerce in Japan, believe companies should be required to have one-third of board members who are independent.
Regulators too, including Meti, the TSE and the Financial Services Agency have been working to improve corporate governance standards. “Investors are rapidly losing confidence and interest in [the] Tokyo market . . . market players, including . . . listed companies, are facing an urgent need to restore investor confidence and interest,” the TSE noted in a recent report.
The FSA has considered requiring mutual funds and insurance companies to disclose how they voted at shareholder meetings.
Meti plans to compile a report next month on reforms to Japan’s system of governance, in which it would like to include some form of requirement that companies appoint independent directors, as well as a clear definition of what is meant by independence.
But efforts by regulators to implement changes that would bring Japan’s corporate governance standards more in line with international practice have met fierce resistance from the business community. “There is no relationship between a company’s performance and whether or not they have outside directors,” says Yasuhisa Abe, director of the business infrastructure bureau of the Keidanren.
A draft report by Meti’s Corporate Governance Study Group published on Tuesday, suggests Keidanren’s opposition is leading to a compromise solution.
According to the draft, companies will be allowed to choose whether to appoint outside directors. But companies that do not appoint outside directors must disclose their own system of management oversight.
The changes will make Japanese rules similar to the “comply or explain” system in the UK, whereby it is recommended companies have a majority of independent directors and if they do not, are required to explain why.
For many investors concerned about corporate governance in Japan, the final outcome is likely to fall significantly short of what they had hoped for. As one observer notes, given the Keidanren’s power and the lack of public debate, any attempt to impose changes that the business community opposes will end up “whittled down and diluted”.
Published: May 28 2009 17:24 Last updated: May 28 2009 17:24
It used to be said that Japan’s business community, bureaucracy and politicians formed an iron triangle that was a key factor in the country’s post-war industrial success.
But a stand-off between the Keidanren, Japan’s powerful business lobby, and regulators over whether listed companies should be required to appoint outside directors has exposed cracks in the foundations of the Japanese economic edifice.
EDITOR’S CHOICE
Tokyo plans guidelines for independent directors - May-26
The Keidanren – headed by the indomitable Fujio Mitarai, chairman of Canon – is resisting an initiative by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry to require listed companies to appoint outside directors as a means to improve corporate governance.
Japanese regulators, once criticised for their cosy relationships with companies, have joined investors in raising concerns about the impact of poor corporate governance on the future of the Japanese economy.
The issue of outside, independent directors has been the subject of much debate in recent years, particularly after it was raised by foreign fund managers unhappy with corporate governance standards in Japan.
Under Japanese company law, companies are free to choose between two systems of corporate governance: a system with committees, which requires the appointment of outside directors; and a statutory auditor system, which does not call for outside directors.
In practice, although just 56 of the 2,634 companies listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange have opted for the committee system, only 1,057 companies have outside directors. Corporate governance advocates, such as the Asian Corporate Governance Association, as well as foreign business lobby groups, including the American Chamber of Commerce in Japan, believe companies should be required to have one-third of board members who are independent.
Regulators too, including Meti, the TSE and the Financial Services Agency have been working to improve corporate governance standards. “Investors are rapidly losing confidence and interest in [the] Tokyo market . . . market players, including . . . listed companies, are facing an urgent need to restore investor confidence and interest,” the TSE noted in a recent report.
The FSA has considered requiring mutual funds and insurance companies to disclose how they voted at shareholder meetings.
Meti plans to compile a report next month on reforms to Japan’s system of governance, in which it would like to include some form of requirement that companies appoint independent directors, as well as a clear definition of what is meant by independence.
But efforts by regulators to implement changes that would bring Japan’s corporate governance standards more in line with international practice have met fierce resistance from the business community. “There is no relationship between a company’s performance and whether or not they have outside directors,” says Yasuhisa Abe, director of the business infrastructure bureau of the Keidanren.
A draft report by Meti’s Corporate Governance Study Group published on Tuesday, suggests Keidanren’s opposition is leading to a compromise solution.
According to the draft, companies will be allowed to choose whether to appoint outside directors. But companies that do not appoint outside directors must disclose their own system of management oversight.
The changes will make Japanese rules similar to the “comply or explain” system in the UK, whereby it is recommended companies have a majority of independent directors and if they do not, are required to explain why.
For many investors concerned about corporate governance in Japan, the final outcome is likely to fall significantly short of what they had hoped for. As one observer notes, given the Keidanren’s power and the lack of public debate, any attempt to impose changes that the business community opposes will end up “whittled down and diluted”.
miércoles, 22 de abril de 2009
Japón registra déficit comercial por primera vez en 30 años
Publicado el 22-04-2009 , por Expansión.com
Japón registró en el ejercicio fiscal 2008 su primer déficit comercial en 28 años, si bien en marzo el ritmo de retroceso de las exportaciones, del 45,6%, fue algo menor que el récord mínimo marcado en febrero.
Desde abril de 2008 a marzo de 2009, el año fiscal que sirve como referencia en Japón, la balanza comercial de la segunda economía del mundo tuvo un déficit de 7.346 millones de dólares, a consecuencia de la caída récord de sus exportaciones anuales del 16,4%, informa EFE.
Ha sido el primer descenso en siete años de las exportaciones de Japón durante un año fiscal, hasta los 720.577 millones de dólares, y también de las importaciones, del 4,1%, hasta los 727.970 millones de dólares, según el Ministerio de Finanzas.
El déficit, que cambia la tradicional tendencia al superávit comercial de Japón, es resultado sobre todo del fuerte descenso de sus exportaciones a causa de la caída de la demanda internacional, que ha empujado a la segunda economía del mundo a su peor crisis desde el final de la II Guerra Mundial. Este es el peor resultado comercial para Japón desde 1980, después de la segunda crisis del petróleo.
Las exportaciones de Japón a su principal mercado, Estados Unidos, bajaron el 27,2% en el ejercicio fiscal 2008, mientras las ventas a la Unión Europea (UE) retrocedieron casi un 40 por ciento en el año fiscal que concluyó el 31 de marzo. Con América Latina, sin embargo, la balanza comercial de Japón supuso apenas una caída del 2,2%, debido a que con Brasil su superávit anual creció el 75%, lo que contrarrestó los descensos del 22,7% con México y del 36,3 con Chile.
El déficit comercial anual de Japón responde a los aumentos de precio del petróleo y otras materias primas en el primer semestre, que afectó a las importaciones, mientras en la segunda mitad del año el impacto de la crisis fue brutal sobre las exportaciones, algo especialmente evidente en Asia. Con China, su segundo socio tras Estados Unidos, Japón incrementó en un 13% su déficit comercial por primera vez en tres años, lo mismo que ocurrió con el resto de Asia, aunque ahí el retroceso fue más acusado, del 35 por ciento.
Indicios de recuperaciónNo obstante, los analistas veían hoy indicios para el optimismo en los resultados de marzo: segundo superávit consecutivo en la balanza comercial de Japón, uno de los países más afectados por la recesión en todo el mundo según los datos macroeconómicos. El superávit fue de 111 millones de dólares, un retroceso del 99% frente al registrado en ese mes de 2008, pero las exportaciones disminuyeron el 45,6%, por debajo del 49,4% de caída en febrero, su tercer récord mínimo consecutivo. Fue especialmente significativo el dato de las ventas de bienes japoneses a China, que descendió el 31,5% en marzo, menos que el casi 40% de caída en febrero y del 45% de retroceso de enero.
Japón registró en el ejercicio fiscal 2008 su primer déficit comercial en 28 años, si bien en marzo el ritmo de retroceso de las exportaciones, del 45,6%, fue algo menor que el récord mínimo marcado en febrero.
Desde abril de 2008 a marzo de 2009, el año fiscal que sirve como referencia en Japón, la balanza comercial de la segunda economía del mundo tuvo un déficit de 7.346 millones de dólares, a consecuencia de la caída récord de sus exportaciones anuales del 16,4%, informa EFE.
Ha sido el primer descenso en siete años de las exportaciones de Japón durante un año fiscal, hasta los 720.577 millones de dólares, y también de las importaciones, del 4,1%, hasta los 727.970 millones de dólares, según el Ministerio de Finanzas.
El déficit, que cambia la tradicional tendencia al superávit comercial de Japón, es resultado sobre todo del fuerte descenso de sus exportaciones a causa de la caída de la demanda internacional, que ha empujado a la segunda economía del mundo a su peor crisis desde el final de la II Guerra Mundial. Este es el peor resultado comercial para Japón desde 1980, después de la segunda crisis del petróleo.
Las exportaciones de Japón a su principal mercado, Estados Unidos, bajaron el 27,2% en el ejercicio fiscal 2008, mientras las ventas a la Unión Europea (UE) retrocedieron casi un 40 por ciento en el año fiscal que concluyó el 31 de marzo. Con América Latina, sin embargo, la balanza comercial de Japón supuso apenas una caída del 2,2%, debido a que con Brasil su superávit anual creció el 75%, lo que contrarrestó los descensos del 22,7% con México y del 36,3 con Chile.
El déficit comercial anual de Japón responde a los aumentos de precio del petróleo y otras materias primas en el primer semestre, que afectó a las importaciones, mientras en la segunda mitad del año el impacto de la crisis fue brutal sobre las exportaciones, algo especialmente evidente en Asia. Con China, su segundo socio tras Estados Unidos, Japón incrementó en un 13% su déficit comercial por primera vez en tres años, lo mismo que ocurrió con el resto de Asia, aunque ahí el retroceso fue más acusado, del 35 por ciento.
Indicios de recuperaciónNo obstante, los analistas veían hoy indicios para el optimismo en los resultados de marzo: segundo superávit consecutivo en la balanza comercial de Japón, uno de los países más afectados por la recesión en todo el mundo según los datos macroeconómicos. El superávit fue de 111 millones de dólares, un retroceso del 99% frente al registrado en ese mes de 2008, pero las exportaciones disminuyeron el 45,6%, por debajo del 49,4% de caída en febrero, su tercer récord mínimo consecutivo. Fue especialmente significativo el dato de las ventas de bienes japoneses a China, que descendió el 31,5% en marzo, menos que el casi 40% de caída en febrero y del 45% de retroceso de enero.
martes, 31 de marzo de 2009
El paro de Japón alcanza el 4,4%, la tasa más alta en tres años
Ref: EL CONFIDENCIAL
La tasa de desempleo en Japón subió tres décimas, en febrero, respecto al mes anterior, hasta situarse en el 4,4%, informó hoy el Gobierno. Respecto a febrero de 2008, el número de parados aumentó por cuarto mes consecutivo en 330.000 personas hasta llegar a 2,99 millones, según los datos preliminares del Ministerio del Interior y Comunicaciones, recogidos por la agencia local de noticias Kyodo.
La tasa de desempleo de febrero sobrepasó ligeramente las previsiones de mercado que apuntaban a un aumento del paro de hasta el 4,3%, según una encuesta realizada por Kyodo. Otro informe gubernamental señaló que la cifra de ofertas de trabajo respecto a los buscadores de empleo en febrero se situó en el 0,59, por debajo del 0,63 al que apuntaban las previsiones.
Este porcentaje indica que el pasado mes hubo 59 ofertas para cada 100 buscadores de trabajo, frente a las 67 por cada 100 disponibles en enero. Según el Ejecutivo, el número de ofertas de trabajo en febrero decreció el 6,7% con respecto al mes anterior, mientras que el número de buscadores de empleo aumentó un 4,9%. El porcentaje de ofertas nuevas de trabajo cayó el 30,1% en febrero con respecto al mismo mes del año anterior.
Compañías como Toyota Motor o NEC están llevando a cabo fuertes despidos, aumentando las presiones sobre el Gobierno nipón para que ofrezca mayor asistencia a los desempleados, la mayoría de los cuales no reciben ningún tipo de compensación económica. Precisamente el ministro de finanzas, Kaoru Yosano, ha dicho que el Gobierno prepara un plan de estímulo a mediados de abril que incluirá, entre otras medidas, ayudas a los desempleados.
Japón sen enfrenta a la peor recesión desde la Segunda Guerra Mundual desde que la demanda de sus vehículos y productos electrónicos se evapora. Las exportaciones cayeron casi un 50% en febrero respecto al mismo mes de 2008, un porcentaje histórico. Además, la producción industrial se contrajo un 9,4%, cuando en enero registró otra caída del 10,2%.
La tasa de desempleo en Japón subió tres décimas, en febrero, respecto al mes anterior, hasta situarse en el 4,4%, informó hoy el Gobierno. Respecto a febrero de 2008, el número de parados aumentó por cuarto mes consecutivo en 330.000 personas hasta llegar a 2,99 millones, según los datos preliminares del Ministerio del Interior y Comunicaciones, recogidos por la agencia local de noticias Kyodo.
La tasa de desempleo de febrero sobrepasó ligeramente las previsiones de mercado que apuntaban a un aumento del paro de hasta el 4,3%, según una encuesta realizada por Kyodo. Otro informe gubernamental señaló que la cifra de ofertas de trabajo respecto a los buscadores de empleo en febrero se situó en el 0,59, por debajo del 0,63 al que apuntaban las previsiones.
Este porcentaje indica que el pasado mes hubo 59 ofertas para cada 100 buscadores de trabajo, frente a las 67 por cada 100 disponibles en enero. Según el Ejecutivo, el número de ofertas de trabajo en febrero decreció el 6,7% con respecto al mes anterior, mientras que el número de buscadores de empleo aumentó un 4,9%. El porcentaje de ofertas nuevas de trabajo cayó el 30,1% en febrero con respecto al mismo mes del año anterior.
Compañías como Toyota Motor o NEC están llevando a cabo fuertes despidos, aumentando las presiones sobre el Gobierno nipón para que ofrezca mayor asistencia a los desempleados, la mayoría de los cuales no reciben ningún tipo de compensación económica. Precisamente el ministro de finanzas, Kaoru Yosano, ha dicho que el Gobierno prepara un plan de estímulo a mediados de abril que incluirá, entre otras medidas, ayudas a los desempleados.
Japón sen enfrenta a la peor recesión desde la Segunda Guerra Mundual desde que la demanda de sus vehículos y productos electrónicos se evapora. Las exportaciones cayeron casi un 50% en febrero respecto al mismo mes de 2008, un porcentaje histórico. Además, la producción industrial se contrajo un 9,4%, cuando en enero registró otra caída del 10,2%.
jueves, 26 de febrero de 2009
Lawson to buy am/pm for JPY15 billion
Thursday, Feb. 26, 2009
Lawson looks to buy am/pm for ¥15 billion
Kyodo News
Lawson Inc., Japan's second-largest convenience store chain, said Wednesday it plans to acquire smaller rival am/pm Japan Co. for between ¥14 billion and ¥15 billion as it seeks to expand its operations in the densely populated Tokyo area.
Lawson said it has struck a basic agreement with Rex Holdings Co., the owner of am/pm Japan, for the acquisition.
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"By making am/pm (Japan), which has a concentration of store chains and customers in the Tokyo metropolitan area, one of our group firms, we will be able to attain dominance," Lawson said in a statement.
Lawson hopes to better compete with market leader Seven-Eleven Japan Co. by taking over seventh-ranked am/pm Japan, which has over 500 convenience stores in Tokyo's 23 wards, observers said.
The acquisition will be the first major realignment in the industry since Circle K Japan Co. and Sunkus & Associated Inc. integrated their operations in 2001.
Observers said the acquisition of am/pm Japan may trigger another industrywide reshuffle as competition intensifies amid deteriorating economic conditions.
Rex Holdings Co., which owns am/pm Japan, had been looking to sell the convenience store chain after its efforts failed to turn around the money-losing outlets.
Lawson said it will acquire all shares of am/pm Japan for ¥1 from Rex Holdings and others in exchange for taking over am/pm Japan's interest-bearing debts of about ¥20 billion.
Lawson looks to buy am/pm for ¥15 billion
Kyodo News
Lawson Inc., Japan's second-largest convenience store chain, said Wednesday it plans to acquire smaller rival am/pm Japan Co. for between ¥14 billion and ¥15 billion as it seeks to expand its operations in the densely populated Tokyo area.
Lawson said it has struck a basic agreement with Rex Holdings Co., the owner of am/pm Japan, for the acquisition.
window.google_render_ad();
"By making am/pm (Japan), which has a concentration of store chains and customers in the Tokyo metropolitan area, one of our group firms, we will be able to attain dominance," Lawson said in a statement.
Lawson hopes to better compete with market leader Seven-Eleven Japan Co. by taking over seventh-ranked am/pm Japan, which has over 500 convenience stores in Tokyo's 23 wards, observers said.
The acquisition will be the first major realignment in the industry since Circle K Japan Co. and Sunkus & Associated Inc. integrated their operations in 2001.
Observers said the acquisition of am/pm Japan may trigger another industrywide reshuffle as competition intensifies amid deteriorating economic conditions.
Rex Holdings Co., which owns am/pm Japan, had been looking to sell the convenience store chain after its efforts failed to turn around the money-losing outlets.
Lawson said it will acquire all shares of am/pm Japan for ¥1 from Rex Holdings and others in exchange for taking over am/pm Japan's interest-bearing debts of about ¥20 billion.
miércoles, 11 de febrero de 2009
Malas Noticias en cascada
The Economist, vuelve a la carga esta semana con sendas noticias (1 y 2) sobre la economía japonesa, no demasiado optimistas. La verdad nada nuevo en la nevera, los cerebros integrantes de este bloggerl lo habíamos previsto un año vista, en nuestros enriquecedores debates de barra de bar.
miércoles, 28 de enero de 2009
"Early in, early out" o vamos que nos vamos
Jan 22nd 2009 TOKYO
From The Economist print edition.
An economy not hit directly by the financial storm is shrinking much faster than any other developed one.
NO EVENT is seared upon Japan’s recent memory like the bursting of the country’s credit-inflated bubble in land and share prices after 1990. Yet, since the autumn, the speed with which Japan’s industrial output and exports have fallen almost certainly signals a slump of unprecedented severity, making Japan’s several post-bubble recessions look mild. In 1998, the worst year, the economy shrank by 2%. Most economists think it contracted by more than that in the last three months of 2008 alone. Goldman Sachs expects GDP to fall by 3.8% this year.
After six years of growth, the longest uninterrupted post-war run, Japan entered a new recession as early as the second quarter of 2008. But in the final couple of months of the year, what at first was a fairly gentle decline morphed into something far worse than that experienced even by countries at the centre of the credit storm (see chart).
In November the value of exports fell by 27% year on year. The picture only worsened in December with a year-on-year fall of 35%. Recession in the United States was the main cause, with exports there down by 36.9% from a year earlier. In turn, the global slump has also knocked supply chains in Asia, sending Japan’s exports to China down by 35.5% in December, with exports to Asia’s “tigers” (Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan) falling by even more than those to America.
Exports account for almost half of Japan’s manufacturing output, which as a consequence is seeing its biggest falls since records began: November’s output was down by 13% on a year earlier. Orders for machine tools in December, an early indicator of things to come, were 72% lower than a year before. Hiroshi Shiraishi of BNP Paribas reckons that by December industrial output had already fallen back to its post-bubble low in 2001, wiping out the gains from six years of what had been thought to be a solid recovery. Before the slump is over, Mr Shiraishi expects production to slide back to levels last seen in 1987.
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It has not helped that the export demand that drove Japan’s economic recovery after 2002 was narrowly based on cars and consumer technology, industries that have fallen more than most. Carmakers, for instance, are roughly halving production, with consequences for makers of steel, chips and chemicals.
Perhaps the most unexpected element of the slump is the knock that domestic sentiment is taking. After all, Japan had none of the credit excesses of America and much of Europe: rather than borrow in recent years, Japan’s companies have paid off debts, while households sit on a pile of savings. The financial system is largely untainted by toxic securities and bad debts, and though the regional banks look set to start asking for public funds, the big city banks are some way from needing to do that. Still, consumer demand, never strong during the six-year recovery, has weakened fast. Year-on-year car sales are down by more than a fifth; department-store sales have fallen by nearly a tenth. On January 20th the Cabinet Office released its consumer-confidence survey for December, which marked its third consecutive all-time low. The survey points to how badly the slump has spread to services.
ReutersThe inducements aren’t working
To cap it all, Japan now faces the return of a ghost it thought it had banished: deflation. By the summer, prices will be falling again. To the extent that this marks a decline in energy prices since last year, it is helpful. But another persistent fall in prices would be a sign of policy failure. In December the Bank of Japan was forced to cut interest rates almost to zero, ie, back to where they last were in 2006. On January 22nd it announced expanded plans to buy commercial paper and even corporate bonds. Takatoshi Ito of Tokyo University, until recently a government adviser, thinks the bank should be doing much more, including making a clear commitment to targeting a positive rate of inflation.
There is cause to temper the pessimism. Households still have their savings. And bank lending to companies is on the rise, though a good chunk of this is taking over from credit once supplied by capital markets, which have dried up.
Crucially, adjustments are happening swiftly in areas that beleaguered companies tackled only slowly during the last slump, such as bloated workforces and excessive capacity. Bankruptcies of “zombie” companies long kept alive on cheap credit and an undervalued currency have soared now that credit is harder to get and the yen has risen to a fairer valuation on a trade-weighted basis. And at the end of a decade in which much more use was made of contract and temporary workers, companies are now laying these off fast. In order to reduce inventories, production is also being slashed. This marks a new flexibility in Japan’s economy.
Unemployment, now 3.9%, may head back towards the post-bubble high of 5.5%. At the same time, the structure of the labour force may lessen the pain. As the economy recovered, many companies asked workers from Japan’s huge generation of baby-boomers to stay on past retirement age. Plenty of these will now simply retire with their pensions. Swift adjustments to workforces and inventories mean that Japan may recover sooner than other rich economies.
But when, and how robust, that recovery will be is another matter. However fast companies are cutting capacity that once served Americans’ debt-fuelled consumption, Japan’s whole economic structure is geared towards meeting external demand. That post-war model in Japan is now bust. So too is the political system that built and guided it: after half a century of almost unbroken power, the Liberal Democratic Party, having lost its purpose, is threatened with annihilation at the polls in the next few months.
Ageing population, decrepit politics
Political dysfunction has now become perhaps the biggest issue for the economy. Policymakers should be debating how to foster domestic demand in an ageing and shrinking society—for instance, by dismantling regulations in health care and services for the old that benefit producers over users. Instead, the government is locked in a sterile fight, within its own ranks as well as with the opposition, over a relatively small stimulus worth ¥2 trillion ($22 billion), much of which will be pocketed by consumers, not spent. Masaaki Kanno of JPMorgan Securities thinks that a stimulus four times bigger, designed to raise productivity, is needed to counter the slump in demand.
The government’s timidity is encouraged in part by a national debt that soared during the post-bubble years: the ratio of net debt to GDP stands at over 90%. Yet interest rates and so the cost of servicing the debt remain very low; and almost all the debt-holders are Japanese, not flighty foreigners. The risks lie in favour of more vigorous action.
The same applies to the central bank, whose natural caution is reinforced by the absence of political direction or debate. For instance, a case might be made for the Bank of Japan, as well as clearly targeting inflation, to buy equities, so boosting commercial banks’ capital, a big part of which is made up of shareholdings whose value continued to lurch down this week. So here is the irony: whereas the rest of the rich world, starting with America, desperately seeks to avoid Japan’s experience in the post-bubble years, Japan today is condemned by its own dismal politics to drag along behind everyone else.
After six years of growth, the longest uninterrupted post-war run, Japan entered a new recession as early as the second quarter of 2008. But in the final couple of months of the year, what at first was a fairly gentle decline morphed into something far worse than that experienced even by countries at the centre of the credit storm (see chart).
In November the value of exports fell by 27% year on year. The picture only worsened in December with a year-on-year fall of 35%. Recession in the United States was the main cause, with exports there down by 36.9% from a year earlier. In turn, the global slump has also knocked supply chains in Asia, sending Japan’s exports to China down by 35.5% in December, with exports to Asia’s “tigers” (Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan) falling by even more than those to America.
Exports account for almost half of Japan’s manufacturing output, which as a consequence is seeing its biggest falls since records began: November’s output was down by 13% on a year earlier. Orders for machine tools in December, an early indicator of things to come, were 72% lower than a year before. Hiroshi Shiraishi of BNP Paribas reckons that by December industrial output had already fallen back to its post-bubble low in 2001, wiping out the gains from six years of what had been thought to be a solid recovery. Before the slump is over, Mr Shiraishi expects production to slide back to levels last seen in 1987.
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It has not helped that the export demand that drove Japan’s economic recovery after 2002 was narrowly based on cars and consumer technology, industries that have fallen more than most. Carmakers, for instance, are roughly halving production, with consequences for makers of steel, chips and chemicals.
Perhaps the most unexpected element of the slump is the knock that domestic sentiment is taking. After all, Japan had none of the credit excesses of America and much of Europe: rather than borrow in recent years, Japan’s companies have paid off debts, while households sit on a pile of savings. The financial system is largely untainted by toxic securities and bad debts, and though the regional banks look set to start asking for public funds, the big city banks are some way from needing to do that. Still, consumer demand, never strong during the six-year recovery, has weakened fast. Year-on-year car sales are down by more than a fifth; department-store sales have fallen by nearly a tenth. On January 20th the Cabinet Office released its consumer-confidence survey for December, which marked its third consecutive all-time low. The survey points to how badly the slump has spread to services.
ReutersThe inducements aren’t working
To cap it all, Japan now faces the return of a ghost it thought it had banished: deflation. By the summer, prices will be falling again. To the extent that this marks a decline in energy prices since last year, it is helpful. But another persistent fall in prices would be a sign of policy failure. In December the Bank of Japan was forced to cut interest rates almost to zero, ie, back to where they last were in 2006. On January 22nd it announced expanded plans to buy commercial paper and even corporate bonds. Takatoshi Ito of Tokyo University, until recently a government adviser, thinks the bank should be doing much more, including making a clear commitment to targeting a positive rate of inflation.
There is cause to temper the pessimism. Households still have their savings. And bank lending to companies is on the rise, though a good chunk of this is taking over from credit once supplied by capital markets, which have dried up.
Crucially, adjustments are happening swiftly in areas that beleaguered companies tackled only slowly during the last slump, such as bloated workforces and excessive capacity. Bankruptcies of “zombie” companies long kept alive on cheap credit and an undervalued currency have soared now that credit is harder to get and the yen has risen to a fairer valuation on a trade-weighted basis. And at the end of a decade in which much more use was made of contract and temporary workers, companies are now laying these off fast. In order to reduce inventories, production is also being slashed. This marks a new flexibility in Japan’s economy.
Unemployment, now 3.9%, may head back towards the post-bubble high of 5.5%. At the same time, the structure of the labour force may lessen the pain. As the economy recovered, many companies asked workers from Japan’s huge generation of baby-boomers to stay on past retirement age. Plenty of these will now simply retire with their pensions. Swift adjustments to workforces and inventories mean that Japan may recover sooner than other rich economies.
But when, and how robust, that recovery will be is another matter. However fast companies are cutting capacity that once served Americans’ debt-fuelled consumption, Japan’s whole economic structure is geared towards meeting external demand. That post-war model in Japan is now bust. So too is the political system that built and guided it: after half a century of almost unbroken power, the Liberal Democratic Party, having lost its purpose, is threatened with annihilation at the polls in the next few months.
Ageing population, decrepit politics
Political dysfunction has now become perhaps the biggest issue for the economy. Policymakers should be debating how to foster domestic demand in an ageing and shrinking society—for instance, by dismantling regulations in health care and services for the old that benefit producers over users. Instead, the government is locked in a sterile fight, within its own ranks as well as with the opposition, over a relatively small stimulus worth ¥2 trillion ($22 billion), much of which will be pocketed by consumers, not spent. Masaaki Kanno of JPMorgan Securities thinks that a stimulus four times bigger, designed to raise productivity, is needed to counter the slump in demand.
The government’s timidity is encouraged in part by a national debt that soared during the post-bubble years: the ratio of net debt to GDP stands at over 90%. Yet interest rates and so the cost of servicing the debt remain very low; and almost all the debt-holders are Japanese, not flighty foreigners. The risks lie in favour of more vigorous action.
The same applies to the central bank, whose natural caution is reinforced by the absence of political direction or debate. For instance, a case might be made for the Bank of Japan, as well as clearly targeting inflation, to buy equities, so boosting commercial banks’ capital, a big part of which is made up of shareholdings whose value continued to lurch down this week. So here is the irony: whereas the rest of the rich world, starting with America, desperately seeks to avoid Japan’s experience in the post-bubble years, Japan today is condemned by its own dismal politics to drag along behind everyone else.
lunes, 26 de enero de 2009
FELIZ AÑO NUEVO
Nos congratulamos de nuevo con nosotros mismos por este nuevo año que nos has sido concedido para reparar todo lo deleznable del anterior. MAHOC, MAHOC!! THE END IS CLOSE!!
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